Kissinger outlines the way forward with Russia. As I have been postulating for some time, Russia/China expansion will come to be the foreign policy issues that define the next administration.
That is not to say Islamic terrorism will not play a role, because it will. But the difference is the staying power of Putin and Hu is much stronger than non state actors like Al-Qeada. Russia and China have the two most important aspects of global power, resources and consumers; terrorists have neither.
Moreover, the fundamentalism that terrorist use to legitimize their operations alienate the very people they are supposed to attract. Islamic terrorism kills many more Muslims than Jews or Christians. In Iraq, Saudi Arabia and to a growing extent Afghanistan and Pakistan Muslim on Muslim viloence has turned popular support against Al-Qeada and it's want-to-be's.
In addition, as Muslim populations grow in Europe they will by osmosis assimilate into those societies. I realize this will take longer than eight years, but the trends were begin to bear themselves out. Whereas currently Muslims are gehttoized and are therefore angry, simple population projects will change these dynamics.
On the other hand, the rise of state super powers with questionable ambitions and histories like Russia and China are much more lasting occurrences that will demand the best of American leaders.
5 comments:
What is your opinion of what Putin really wants. What does he truly see for Russia when he's all alone at bedtime. Does he want to get back to the old USSR? Does he want to be just like the USA? Does he want world acceptance? Street Cred? Domination? Does he see a shining future for his people and his land or does he just want more of the cold war? Is it selfish gain or pride in Mother Russia that drives him. I know he's ol school KGB and that had to have shaped him.
well i am not going to go all GWB on you and say that i've look into the man's soul and know what he's about.
my understanding is that he's a power freak. the good of mother Russia out weighs the good of the individual. plus personal freedoms make it harder to control public opinion. so you see restrictions on the press, religion, rigged elections, etc.
how all this plays out long term? i am not sure, but he and Hu, the president of China are re-writing what authoritarian leaders can do with some capitalism
You optimism about the assimilation of the Muslims seems to counter reality. I'd like to see a working example of this in Europe. Yes the Muslims will constitute a majority of the population in Europe, but that does not mean that they will accept Europe's traditions. In fact, events are showing the opposite.
I am still unconvinced that China is the threat you say it is. China owns large portions of our country. At this time they are the ones keeping us propped up by buying our debt. In China, I think the leaders believe that their power rests on economic prosperity. The last thing they want is for their primary market to falter. Give me a scenario for the Chinese to provoke us into any a major military engagement. It is hard to do in the short run.
On the other hand, I can tell you exactly how Iran can and probably will cause some version of world war. They get the bomb. They threaten Isreal. Isreal attacks Iran. Iran attacks back. It is world war....
I don't think it is close as an immediate danger. China and Russia are calculating. Iran is belligerent.
to your point about Muslims, i heard a speaker last night--an Arab Christian,who has a PhD in Islamic studies--talk about fundamentalism. He says that 70-80% of Muslims are nominal or cultural, it is this majority who will over time become more European. Xenophobia is causing events like the Paris riots of 2006, not extremism. Thousands of Muslims live peacefully in France, Germany and the UK already.
To China, they are dangerous; they supply weapons and technology to the Janjanweed militia in Sudan, they have helped North Korea test Nuclear war heads, along with Pakistan and could do the same for Iran, they are moving to weaponize space technology and moreover, the quality control and oversight of Chinese goods is suspect. Bad Chinese products already cause the world great harm.
My main concern is not that China would act unilaterally, rather their own behavior shows a pattern of troubling partnerships in order to obtain the natural resources their economy needs to continue rapid growth. Russia is a historical partner, and it makes sense that they would rekindle that relationship.
i should follow up my comment. I do think the nature and the growth of Islam is Europe is troubling to the Church.
While some sectors of the reformed Church and others in the Catholic Church are seeing new growth, much of the Church in Europe is dying or dead.
The first and strongest line of defense against the radicalization of European Muslims is a strong, health Church; speaking grace and truth, waging war in the unseen realms and not hand to hand combat.
Without the power of prayer, the Church stands no hope against the coming tide of Muslims from the Mid East.
And that would spell danger because there then would be no buffer between secular Europe and Islam.
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