the re-rise of russia

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/30/opinion/edkissinger.php

Kissinger outlines the way forward with Russia. As I have been postulating for some time, Russia/China expansion will come to be the foreign policy issues that define the next administration. 

That is not to say Islamic terrorism will not play a role, because it will. But the difference is the staying power of Putin and Hu is much stronger than non state actors like Al-Qeada. Russia and China have the two most important aspects of global power, resources and consumers; terrorists have neither.

Moreover, the fundamentalism that terrorist use to legitimize their operations alienate the very people they are supposed to attract. Islamic terrorism kills many more Muslims than Jews or Christians. In Iraq, Saudi Arabia and to a growing extent Afghanistan and Pakistan Muslim on Muslim viloence has turned popular support against Al-Qeada and it's want-to-be's.

In addition, as Muslim populations grow in Europe they will by osmosis assimilate into those societies. I realize this will take longer than eight years, but the trends were begin to bear themselves out. Whereas currently Muslims are gehttoized and are therefore angry, simple population projects will change these dynamics.

On the other hand, the rise of state super powers with questionable ambitions and histories like Russia and China are much more lasting occurrences that will demand the best of American leaders.

weekend fun

two good blog posts from US News & World Report

1.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/9/30/how-mccain-can-mount-a-comeback.html

2.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/flowchart/2008/9/29/bailout-take-ii-what-the-feds-do-next.html

debate break down

http://time-blog.com/middle_east/2008/09/warrior_mccain_diplomat_obama.html

This is a good break down of the debate that was supposed to focus on foriegn policy. becuase of the credit crisis not all of the issues that should have been addressed were.

CA ballot props

There are two propositions that address the right to life and the nature of life. Props 4 & 8 respectively deserve our attention. 

Prop 4:

 http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_4_(2008) is a parental notification law, stating that a minor seeking an abortion needs to notify her parents before she undertakes the procedure. This is common sense, a 16 year old girl can't see an R rated movie without Mom and Dad, she should not be able to make a decision about life or death on her own.

Prop 8:

 http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=California_Proposition_8_(2008) would amend the state constitution to define marriage as a union between a man and woman, only. Regularly I would not support such an amendment, because I generally don't think governments need to get involved in such matters. However,  when the Supreme Court decided to take an active policy role in this debate, over turning Prop 22 (passed in 2000 by 68%) and the will of the voters, Prop 8 deserves our support.

today's brooks fix

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/opinion/30brooks.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Pelosi's floor speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey3ZlsmIkz4

This is Nancy Pelosi's floor speech before today's vote on the bailout package

Many Republicans are placing blame on this speech for the failed vote. 

As lame as the speech is, it would be even worse if Republicans seriously voted against the legislation because they were offended.

how did this happen?

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitol-briefing/2008/09/why_the_bailout_bill_failed.html?hpid=topnews

This is the best analysis of how the bailout failed that I have found yet. It's still early, but this is as good of a break down as there is going to be for some time. 

the politics of the bailout

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/09/a_crisis_resists_the_usual_rem.html

I know I am not smart enough to make a comment on this bailout package. But politically, the Democrats are coming out much better. Dodd and Frank, say what you will about them personally, were able to get what they wanted out of this thing. Limits on executive pay will play very well on the mythical "Main Street" all politicians speak of.

On the other hand, while prudent, the Republicans worked to scale back the package. However, if it fails, they are now in a place to catch all the blame. Moreover, Wachovia along with two Euro banks failed over the weekend. Future bank failures, however unpreventable, may end up on the laps of Republicans who called for less cash up front.

The Wall Street Journal and the Investors Business Daily seem to think this will have little to no impact on the taxpayers because of the stock provisions, and the ability to buy mortgages on the cheap. That seems overly optimistic. These are the same publications who lauded these Wall Street firms for creating mortgaged back securities. They along with Al Greenspan thought spreading all this risk around was a good thing, that looks very short sighted now.

Buckle your seat belts...

on the bailout

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/clueless/

This is a must read conversation between David Brooks and Gail Collins about the state of the proposed bailout package. 

At one point Brooks (Formerly of the National Review) says if the the republicans block the deal and it backfires, 

"We will enter another Depression, the Republican Party will be blamed and the G.O.P. will cease to exist. 

I’m not exaggerating."

These really are heady times.

bring back the foreign policy debate

While the economy has replaced foreign policy as the most important issue to voters, and rightly so for the time being, I think we should not loose focus abroad.

Hamas and Hizbullah in the Palestine and Lebanon, given 1o more years like the last 10 will be extremely difficult to contain, maybe even impossible.

The AfPak tribal regions are HQ for Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, corrupt ISO officials and some of the worst terrorists in the world. Again, we cannot afford the next 10 years to be like the last.

Iran and North Korea seek to become nuclear states, a development that would be hugely troubling given those nations track records.

Russia has transitioned from the doormat of Europe into the Russia of the cold war era, defiant, expansionist and powerful because of its resources.

China is rewriting what we thought possible in terms of political governance and economic growth. Capitalist Dictatorships could be strikingly en vogue should the Chinese keep this up.

And these are only what we know, and to use the infamous Donald Rumsfeld quote, "We don't know what we don't know".

and for all of that, tonights debate focusing on foriegn policy may not even take place, becuase of the financial bailout meetings!