Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Barack Obama For President

I am no longer an undecided  voter. Barack Obama not only deserves to be our next president, he gives America the best chance for success in the future. 

Obama ran a supreme campaign. He managed a 500 person, mutli-thousand volunteer, $650 million dollar organization for two years. Over that period of extreme pressure, expectations and consequences the Obama organization was nearly flawless. 

Not only did the Obama organization shatter fund raising records, it redefined what a top-notch campaign looks like. If Obama can be such a capable leader of our federal government we are in good hands indeed.

Moreover, Obama was able to clearly build on his compelling biography with a singular and consistent narrative; people are more similar than they are different, and a president should unite all people not divide Americans into warring factions.

He outlined why he wanted to be president, and why he should be president. He then persevered through the longest primary contest on record, one in which all 50 states cast important votes. He was therefore vetted by the American voters through that process and was found to be the best democratic candidate.

In the general campaign he filled in the super structure of his primary policy proposals and promises. 

His foreign policy; a plan to draw down forces in Iraq, transfer forces to Afghanistan, reinforce diplomacy with rogue nations and develop a long term energy policy positions America for long term success abroad. This mix of orthodox liberal policies and new pragmatic alternatives is, in my view, the best combination as we try to recover from the Bush years.

Domestically, Obama has the most realistic view of the challenges facing America over the next decade. Americans spend the most money on health care per capita in the world, yet do not have the healthiest population by any measure. Our system needs fundamental reform. 

Health care is a human right, until we adopt policies that provide health care for all people we are failing as country. Obama acknowledges this as an expression of the Biblical teachings of Christ, "That what we do to the least of these, is what we do to Him".

In addition, the culture of debt that has taken over both individuals and government will plague us  for years to come. Barack Obama proposes to raise taxes in a few different ways, this reflects the need to shrink the national debt. Moreover, he has proposed direct revenue streams or cost savings options to pay for new government programs. This pay-as-you-go model is the only way forward.

Environmental and energy policy may become the most important issues facing America over the next 10 years. Obama has proposed a cap-and-trade carbon emissions system. This system would generate billions in government revenue that could not only pay down debt, but it can also be used to invest in new infrastructure projects, clean energy subsidies, public-private partnerships and other job creating projects. 

Such a system would not only define an Obama presidency domestically, it would position America to move away from Middle Eastern oil which would have direct ramifications on national security issues.

Lastly, Obama has run a democratic campaign to be the next president of the United States without turning to traditional hot-bottom issues as abortion, affirmative action, or religion to polarize the electorate into two distinct factions. 

Instead as he said in 2004 at John Kerry's convention he would seek to build "Not a red America or a blue America, but a United States of America". 

To this end Obama has campaigned in and is leading in many traditional red states. This has not only redefined electoral math, it has been done by design so that a president Obama can claim a mandate from all Americans, not just a coalition of liberal states plus strategic swing state voters.

For these and other reasons I will vote for Barack Obama.

Friday, October 10, 2008

do we need bigger banks?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360636585322023.html

this a short history (as called by the author) of banking in America. I am sure there are other prespectives. this one however is compelling. it would actually lend itself to the current politics of the economy quiet well. should the republicans adopt this philosophy i think they would do very well, not only in this election cycle but long term.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

panic at the disco?

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/?xrail

Steve Coll is really smart. probably the smartest voice of the left. i read everything he writes, though some times it takes me a while. anyways, here's to good reading.

where does your candidate stand on the enviroment?

http://www.grist.org/candidate_chart_08.html

check it out.

5 thoughts on the election and the economy

watching the debate this week i was struck by a few things:

1.) the credit crisis has turned into an economic crisis. no longer are the problems relegated to the credit markets. because credit is frozen at a bank-to-bank level the impacts on private borrowers, small businesses and home owners are becoming more than we can handle. consumers can't make big purchases or little one's without fear, employers can't make payroll (because they can't borrow the money they need to pay people) and it's now to a point where California and Massachusetts can't sell bonds because no one can borrow money to buy them. so California is asking the federal government for $8 billion to fill the gap.

2.) the American economic crisis is a global economic crisis. when America sneezes the world still gets sick. put otherwise, decoupling does not exists. markets are more integrated, not less. the entire country of Iceland is capsizing into the Arctic because of their exposure to bad debt. Euro banks are acting in the interest of their home country and not Europe as whole, creating tension in the Zone as they call it.

3.) neither presidential candidates knows anything about these problems or how to fix them. neither does anyone else, despite Treasuries best efforts there is no confidence in the markets, assets and capital remain frozen and it's just getting worse. McCain makes rash judgements and exaggerated motions to act like he's in front of the curve. Obama is slow, methodical and seems at times too cerebral to actually do anything. who we need right now is Mayor Bloomberg.

4.) republicanism is bankrupt of good ideas. McCain said out of one side of his mouth that government action in the housing market, Fannie and Freddy, caused this problem, so, his solution? Have the government take over all the bad mortgages and work them out with home owners? Isn't that Fanny and Freddy on steroids? So much for the CRA being the problem...this more than anything is why Democrats will expand their grip on Washington, republicanism is dead and dumb and everyone who can breathe knows it. and that was supposed to be McCains game-changer!

5.) Obama oozes presidential while McCain is just oozing. Obama is calm, cool, stylish, basically everything McCain isn't. watching the debate put this on center stage for the world to see. i can't imagine after watching that anyone can really say McCain presents more presidential than Obama. it's like putting War Admiral next to a mule.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

calling dr. evil...

"Meanwhile, conservatives have found themselves casting wildly about for solutions that fit their preconceived notions. Having searched frantically for a big government villain behind the free-market meltdown, the finger of blame settled upon the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, which requires banks to lend to low-income neighborhoods. (In fact, as economist Janet Yellen has pointed out, banks that are subject to the CRA made subprime loans at a dramatically lower rate than independent mortgage companies, which are not covered by the CRA.)"
--The New Republic

Monday, October 6, 2008

Zakaria and Fukuyama; End of an Era?

http://www.newsweek.com/id/162272

Fareed Zakaria's weekly.


Francis Fukuyama famously wrote "the end of history" (http://www.wesjones.com/eoh.htm) in 1989. this work, "the end of America Inc." may be equally influential. 

update to 'party like it's 1929?'

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/is_this_a_replay_of_1929.html

from Robert Samuelson of Newsweek.

America in the eyes of the world

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/ali_ettefagh/2008/10/no_longer_a_financial_superpow.html

from the postglobal blog. very good read.

"The Gods of the Copybook Headings"

AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all, 
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul; 
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, 
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began. 
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire, 
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins, 
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will bum, 
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return.

--Kipling

Friday, October 3, 2008

bailout gets bailed out

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/business/economy/04bailout.html?hp

House Republican still voted against the bailout in majority, but enough of them felt the heat to get it passed. It is telling that Senate leaders had to turn this thing into a Christmas tree to get it through.

Republicans seem to be positioning for 2011 and 2012, rebuilding their conservative credentials as limited government fiscal hawks. it's much easier to be ideological when you are in the minority, without the burden of governing. 

Should Democrats expand on their majorities in both houses and take the White House I speculate we will see a new round of Republican congressmen, a bit more principled and a lot less ambitious.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

party like it's 1929?

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12327393

This is an article from The Economist circa 1929, November 23 to be exact. It's a bit wordy, but worth a trip into history for some strangely relevant reading.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

are the republicans rational?

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/the-price-of-disgust/

It seems that Republicans have placed themselves in an interesting gambit; principal versus practice. Will they cut off their nose to spite the face? 

We will find out soon

kudlows take on where we stand

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/10/our_sheila_bair_necessity.html

a good look at the little talked about FDIC.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Pelosi's floor speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey3ZlsmIkz4

This is Nancy Pelosi's floor speech before today's vote on the bailout package

Many Republicans are placing blame on this speech for the failed vote. 

As lame as the speech is, it would be even worse if Republicans seriously voted against the legislation because they were offended.

how did this happen?

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitol-briefing/2008/09/why_the_bailout_bill_failed.html?hpid=topnews

This is the best analysis of how the bailout failed that I have found yet. It's still early, but this is as good of a break down as there is going to be for some time. 


the politics of the bailout


I know I am not smart enough to make a comment on this bailout package. But politically, the Democrats are coming out much better. Dodd and Frank, say what you will about them personally, were able to get what they wanted out of this thing. Limits on executive pay will play very well on the mythical "Main Street" all politicians speak of.

On the other hand, while prudent, the Republicans worked to scale back the package. However, if it fails, they are now in a place to catch all the blame. Moreover, Wachovia along with two Euro banks failed over the weekend. Future bank failures, however unpreventable, may end up on the laps of Republicans who called for less cash up front.

The Wall Street Journal and the Investors Business Daily seem to think this will have little to no impact on the taxpayers because of the stock provisions, and the ability to buy mortgages on the cheap. That seems overly optimistic. These are the same publications who lauded these Wall Street firms for creating mortgaged back securities. They along with Al Greenspan thought spreading all this risk around was a good thing, that looks very short sighted now.

Buckle your seat belts...